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The Hong Kong property market has been in a stalemate recently, and citizens' desire to buy homes continues to be sluggish. According to the latest survey released by "Hong Kong Property", less than half of the respondents are considering buying a home within the next 12 months, a record low in recent years. This reflects that the public generally has a wait-and-see attitude towards the property market and expects the government to introduce "easing" measures to stimulate the market in the upcoming "Budget". The result comes from the bank's in-depth analysis of 300 valid questionnaires, revealing the subtle interaction between market confidence and policy expectations.
Home buying intentions fell sharply quarter-on-quarter; citizens are waiting for policy support
Survey data shows that only 46% respondents are considering entering the market in the next year, a sharp drop of 11.4 percentage points from 57.4% in the fourth quarter of last year, a significant drop. Industry analysts pointed out that this phenomenon reflects that citizens generally adopted a "hold-and-hold" strategy before the Budget was announced, and were particularly concerned about whether the government would further relax residential stamp duty (commonly known as "tough measures") or introduce first-time homebuyer incentives. One citizen interviewed said frankly: "Housing prices are still high, and interest rates are still uncertain. I would rather wait until the budget is announced before making any plans."
Short-term pessimism rises, nearly 60% pessimistic about property price trend
It is worth noting that expectations for the property market trend are also tending to be pessimistic. About 58.4% of respondents predicted that house prices would fall in the next 12 months, a sharp increase of 11.3 percentage points from 47.1% in the previous quarter, the highest pessimistic proportion in three years. This data echoes the "downward risk of housing prices" reports recently released by many major foreign banks. The market generally believes that although the government has partially "withdrawn" from its stimulus measures, the high interest rate environment and slow economic recovery still suppress buyer confidence. Ms. Chen, who belongs to the middle class, said: "With the stock market fluctuating and the continued immigration wave, many friends choose to 'rent' and wait and see, fearing that buying a property now will 'take over the torch'."
The primary market is expected to become the engine, and the trading volume in 2025 is expected to rise by 15%
Despite the cautious short-term sentiment, the "Hong Kong Property" report provides insights into medium- and long-term market structural changes. The bank predicts that as developers accelerate the launch of new projects and provide diversified payment plans, the transaction volume of first-hand private housing will increase by 15% year-on-year to 18,000 in 2025, while the secondary market will rise slightly by 2% to 42,000, reflecting that buyers will continue to prefer new projects with lower tax costs and better supporting facilities. Analysts pointed out: "The new project's 'market price' strategy and 'breathing plan' and other benefits are very attractive to first-time buyers. It is expected that the first-hand market share will exceed 30% in the next two years."
Policy direction is key, industry calls for full withdrawal of spicy food to boost economy
The market focus is now on the Budget to be announced on February 28. The real estate industry generally calls on the government to seize the opportunity to completely withdraw the "tough measures" on housing and consider providing property tax exemptions for specific groups. Ma Tai-yeung, CEO of Hong Kong Property, stressed: "The current property market has fallen by more than 20% from its peak, and outdated demand management measures should keep pace with the times. If the government can decisively reduce its stimulus measures, coupled with the peak of the US interest rate hike cycle, trading volume in the second half of the year is expected to rebound by 20% to 30%. "He also suggested expanding the scope of "stamp duty exemption for talent housing purchases" to professionals, in order to attract foreign funds into the property market.
Scholars warn: Balance market vitality and people's livelihood needs
Song Enrong, professor of economics at the University of Hong Kong, reminded that the property market policy needs to strike a balance between stimulating transactions and protecting people's livelihood: "If the full withdrawal of the stimulus measures leads to a sharp rise in property prices again, it will increase the pressure on young families to buy a home. It is recommended that the government consider relaxing measures in stages and simultaneously increase the supply of subsidized housing to ease market demand." This view is supported by the social welfare sector. Wu Weidong, secretary of the Community Organization Association, pointed out: "Instead of focusing on the private housing market, the government should invest resources in shortening the waiting time for public housing and fundamentally solving the housing contradiction."
Looking at the overall situation, the Hong Kong property market is in a stage of game between policies and market expectations. Whether it is the extent of "easing" measures, the trend of interest rates, or the external economic environment, they will all become variables that influence the direction of housing prices. While citizens are carefully planning their property purchases, they also need to pay close attention to policy trends and market data so that they can find the best opportunity amid the fluctuations.
Further reading:
- The core reason why it is difficult to buy a property in Hong Kong
- 2025 real estate market downturn still the main trend of the good news appears to be cautious observation
- One year after the removal of Hong Kong's property market regulation, the market value of residential properties has evaporated by US$61.7 billion, and the industry calls for new policies to save the market
