Table of Contents
Death spiral reappears (comparative analysis)
In just three days, Huijing Garden saw its second huge loss in the three digits! The latest transaction of a three-bedroom unit in Room G on the lower floor of Block 3 was priced at HK$11,111 per square foot, a record low in the estate in the past decade. It was a loss of HK$31.2% from the purchase price in 2019, and the loss was 1.5 percentage points worse than the upper-floor units in the same estate.
Sceneway Garden depreciation acceleration curve
Units bought in 2019 | Loss rate in 2024
► High floor｜29.7%
► Middle layer｜30.5% (last month’s record)
► Low level｜31.2%⏫
"The floor premium system is collapsing." The traditional 20% weighted floor difference has shrunk to less than 8%, and low-floor households have become the hardest hit areas for capital flight.
Three major killers behind the price-cutting trend (with key data)
- Northeast New Territories Vampire Effect
Centaline Property found that the current price of The View has overlapped with the three-bedroom apartment in Fanling Centre (average price per square foot: HK$11,023), and the proportion of Hong Kong and Kowloon buyers switching to the New Territories has increased by 47% per month - Negative mortgage spread trap
Take this unit as an example:
▸ Monthly payment in 2019: 28,450 yuan (H+1.3%)
▸ Monthly payment in 2024: 42,800 yuan (H+1.5%)
Even if the rental return rate remains at 2.9%, the monthly net outflow is as high as 14,350 yuan - Rebuilding the shadow top
The URA's latest "Yau Tong Bay Planning Scheme" has been revealed, with a potential supply of 6,300 units in the area, directly impacting the valuation system of Sceneway Garden, which is 32 years old.
Stop Loss Revelation (Practical Strategy)
[Owner's Escape Guide]
✓ Time to cut off the arm: If the Fed raises interest rates in September, the potential decline of Hong Kong real estate will expand to 35%
✓ Debt restructuring: By releasing the remaining value through refinancing, the unit can cash out about 1.2 million in liquid funds
✓ Reverse marketing: "Cross-border student dormitory", rent can be increased by 15%
【Predator Strategy】
✔ Bottom-fishing formula: current price + 5-year holding cost (about 980,000) < bank valuation 85%
✔ Renovation red line: Avoid purchasing units with MTR ventilation facilities within 5 meters of the exterior wall (difficulty of resale +30%)
✔ Ambush opportunity: Target "double trapped properties" - urgent sale due to inheritance distribution + vacant property due to expiration of lease
☆ Experts warn: "This wave of adjustments is forming a cross-dimensional stampede. Buyers from 2017 to 2019 have become the most dangerous group."!
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