Table of Contents
The dilemma of industrial agglomeration from the perspective of the first spatial economics
– Hong Kong’s industrial land costs are 47% higher than Singapore’s, causing the marginal cost curve of technology companies to shift upward
– The core-edge model shows that housing price squeeze brings the threshold for manufacturing relocation forward by 8-12 years
– The “self-reinforcing effect” of industrial clusters is reversely disrupted by real estate speculation mechanisms
Second, the structural distortion of human capital flow
– Housing expenses account for 62% of STEM talents’ disposable income, forming a “talent pricing paradox”
– Double segmentation of the labor market: hourly wages in the financial and real estate sectors are 2.3 times higher than those in the technology sector
– Matching efficiency function shows that for every 10% increase in housing prices, the talent retention rate of start-ups decreases by 6.8%
The micro-mechanism of capital misallocation
– Adverse selection in the credit market: the risk premium for mortgage loans is 220 basis points lower than that for technology loans
– The collateral effect caused 84%’s family funds to flow into real estate rather than R&D investment
– The financing cost of science and technology enterprises is 4.7 percentage points higher than that of real estate projects on average
Policy dilemma from the perspective of fourth institutional economics
– Path dependence of land lease system: average annual supply of residential land is insufficient to meet demand from 1984 to 2023 35%
– The public housing allocation mechanism creates a “welfare trap” that inhibits the professional mobility of the labor force
– The rigid property rights structure causes the upgrading and transformation of industrial villages to lag behind the industrial demand by 12-15 years
Fifth, behavioral economics explains innovation inhibition
– Real estate speculation forms “mental account anchoring”, and social entrepreneurship willingness is lower than Taipei 41%
– Risk preference alienation: 65% respondents believe that the stability of housing returns is higher than that of science and technology investment
– The bandwagon effect has caused the R&D investment/GDP ratio to hover at 0.8% for a long time (Singapore is 1.8%).
Economic and ecological imbalance under the sixth complex system theory
– Input-output table analysis shows that for every 1 yuan of added value in the real estate industry, 0.37 yuan of manufacturing investment is squeezed out
– Social network analysis reveals that the network density of scientific and technological talents is lower than that of the financial industry63%
– System dynamics simulation: When the housing price-to-income ratio exceeds 15, the growth rate of total factor productivity approaches zero
Policy Experiments in the Comparative Perspective of the Seventh International
– Israel’s “National Housing Plan” reduces housing costs for technology professionals by 34%, giving rise to the “Silicon Creek” effect
– The mixed land use policy of the Zurich Federal Institute of Technology improves the efficiency of industry-university-research collaboration 27%
– Shenzhen’s affordable housing system has increased the talent turnover rate of key industrial parks by 41%
Eighth: The path of institutional reform for a balanced multi-objective approach
– Establish an “innovation land reserve pool” to ensure that the price of strategic industrial land is anchored at the commercial land price65%
– Design a dynamic balance mechanism between progressive property holding tax and tax credits for science and technology investment
– Constructing a cross-period incentive contract of “talent housing voucher + scientific research performance”
in conclusion:
Through institutional innovation, housing costs can be controlled below 18% as a percentage of technology companies' operating costs, and Hong Kong's innovation index can be raised to the top five in the world. It is necessary to establish a firewall mechanism between the real estate market and the real economy, reconstruct the factor price formation system, and achieve a structural transformation of the urban economic ecology.
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